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The following is a summary of “Predictors in Youth of Adult Cardiovascular Events,” published in the October 2024 issue of Pediatrics by Nuotio et al.
Childhood risk factors, including elevated blood pressure and obesity, are linked to adulthood cardiovascular disease (CVD) events.
Researchers conducted a prospective study comparing the predictive utility of nonlaboratory risk factors and adolescent lipid levels for adulthood CVD events.
They analyzed data from 11,550 participants (55.1% female, mean age 50.0 ± 7.7 years) from 7 longitudinal cohort studies in the United States, Australia, and Finland, focusing on adolescent risk factors including overweight or obesity, elevated blood pressure, smoking, and high borderline or high total cholesterol and triglycerides. The primary outcomes were fatal and nonfatal CVD events after age 25 (P<.05).
The results showed that 513 participants (4.4%) had confirmed CVD events. Elevated blood pressure (HR 1.25 [1.03–1.52]), overweight (HR 1.76 [1.42–2.18]), obesity (HR 2.19 [1.62–2.98]), smoking (HR 1.63 [1.37–1.95]), and high total cholesterol (HR 1.79 [1.39–2.31]) independently predicted CVD events (P<.05). The addition of lipid measurements to the nonlaboratory model did not improve prediction (C-statistics for lipid model 0.75 [SD 0.07] and nonlaboratory model 0.75 [0.07], P=.82).
They concluded that nonlaboratory risk factors and lipid levels measured during adolescence can independently predict adult CVD events, but adding lipids to the model does not enhance predictive capability.
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