Substance use disorders (SUDs) are major contributors to morbidity and mortality rates worldwide, and this global burden is attributable in large part to the chronic nature of these conditions. Increased mood variability might represent a form of emotional dysregulation that may have particular significance for the risk of relapse in SUD, independent of mood severity or diagnostic status. However, the neural biomarkers that underlie mood variability remain poorly understood.
Ecological momentary assessment was used to assess mood variability, craving, and substance use in real time in 54 patients treated for addiction to alcohol, cannabis, or nicotine and 30 healthy control subjects. Such data were jointly examined relative to spectral dynamic causal modeling of effective brain connectivity within 4 networks involved in emotion generation and regulation.
Differences in effective connectivity were related to daily life variability of emotional states experienced by persons with SUD, and mood variability was associated with craving intensity. Relative to the control participants, effective connectivity was decreased for patients in the prefrontal control networks and increased in the emotion generation networks. Findings revealed that effective connectivity within the patient group was modulated by mood variability.
The intrinsic causal dynamics in large-scale neural networks underlying emotion regulation play a predictive role in a patient’s susceptibility to experiencing mood variability (and, subsequently, craving) in daily life. The findings represent an important step toward informing interventional research through biomarkers of factors that increase the risk of relapse in persons with SUD.

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